Bayesian modeling (Other Keyword)
1-8 (8 Records)
Bayesian chronological modeling is used to investigate the origins and causes of warfare during the Mississippian Period (AD 1000-1500) in the Midwestern and Southeastern United States. Radiocarbon results from seven Mississippian centers are presented within an interpretative Bayesian statistical framework. The results indicate that bastioned palisades were built and maintained primarily in AD 1200-1400. While there are a number of reasons for the origins of widespread intensified...
A Bayesian Model-Based Comparison of Radiocarbon Chronologies for the Earliest Complex Societies in the Maya Lowlands (2017)
Sedentary agricultural villages, ceramic technology, and evidence for institutionalized socio-economic inequality first appeared in the Maya lowlands during the Preclassic Period (1200 cal BC – cal AD 300). The chronological details of these significant cultural developments between different regions of the lowlands remain unclear in many cases because of an emphasis on local ceramic typologies that are often difficult to correlate. We use a Bayesian framework to model high-resolution AMS 14C...
A Bayesian Radiocarbon Chronology for Southern Appalachia, A.D. 700-1400 (2016)
Advances in radiometric dating and statistical analyses are having a substantial impact on the archaeology of eastern North America, especially through the achievement of high precision intrasite chronologies. While detailed intrasite dynamics are invaluable to advancing understandings of rapid cultural change, more refined and empirically constructed regional histories are also necessary. An integrated regional Bayesian chronology is presented for Southern Appalachia using extant radiometric...
Employing Bayesian Probability Theory to Diverse Applications Relevant to Archaeology (2018)
The principle of equifinality describes a system where an end state may be reached from a variety of conditions and in a variety of ways and has proved to be a confounding element in several areas in archaeology. Archaeological data commonly occur in both qualitative and quantitative form and Bayesian modeling, coupled with modern computational routines, permits multiple data types to be incorporated into a single synthetic probability model. The Bayesian approach makes probability statements...
A New Bayesian Approach for Estimating Chronological Events and Phases with ChronoModel (2021)
This is an abstract from the "Constructing Chronologies I: Stratification and Correlation" session, at the 86th annual meeting of the Society for American Archaeology. Many issues in archaeology concern the issue of phasing—the beginning, end, and duration of a given period. We define a “Phase” as a group of Events (Event dates) that share common features. Currently used Phase models implemented in many software packages employ statistical models that concentrate posterior Event dates....
The Paleoindian-Archaic Transition in the Western United States: A Bayesian Approach (2017)
Summed probability distributions of large radiocarbon datasets provide a powerful method for investigating prehistoric population change at multi-centennial and millennial scales of analysis. However, summed probability distributions cannot account for statistical scatter and uncertainties accompanying individual calibrated radiocarbon dates, which means that they are ineffective for answering questions related to cultural persistence and change on shorter centennial scales. For these shorter...
Reconsidering Heirarchy, Caching, and Architectural Practices at Cerros Belize (2016)
Caches have been recovered in the Maya area dating to every period since the Middle Preclassic (c. 700 BC) and are among the most common assemblage type recovered from Maya architecture. In the past, most scholars have treated caches as a normative Maya custom, failing to identify significant spatial and temporal variation within cache assemblages. Additionally, many studies have isolated cache contents from their larger contexts, especially the context of the rituals of which they were a...
Reevaluating the Pre-Columbian Colonization of the Caribbean using Chronometric Hygiene and Bayesian Modeling (2017)
The timing and pattern of initial human arrival to the Caribbean islands is discontinuous and anomalous, especially considering their proximity to both mainland areas and adjacent islands. With the exception of Trinidad, which was probably colonized ca. 8000 BP—but was connected to mainland South America during the late Pleistocene/early Holocene (and remains close to Venezuela)—some of the Antilles appear to have been colonized quite early ca. 7000-6000 BP, while others were settled centuries...