No strength in numbers after all? Demographic explanations of cumulative culture re-examined
Cultural-evolutionary models of scientific and technological change enjoy growing popularity. This family of mathematical and agent-based models purportedly explains how cultural change results from a ‘demographic’ effect: complex traits accumulate in large groups, and disappear in smaller groups. We use agent-based modelling to reveal hidden contingencies in these findings. We show that the demographic effect is sensitive to assumptions regarding social learning mechanisms and skill distributions, and particular definitions of complexity, for which there are empirically plausible alternatives. Further, we examine in what sense demographic models of cumulative culture, even if exhibiting robust results, can be said to explain particular transitions, e.g., the loss of culture in Holocene Tasmania, the Upper Palaeolithic transition, or the growth of scientific knowledge since the Industrial Revolution. We consider various proposals offered in the philosophy of science, and demonstrate that none of them is satisfactory. From this we conclude that we either need a new account of explanation, geared specifically to cultural evolutionary models, or let go the idea that these models can do much explanatory work.
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No strength in numbers after all? Demographic explanations of cumulative culture re-examined. Krist Vaesen, Wybo Houkes. Presented at The 80th Annual Meeting of the Society for American Archaeology, San Francisco, California. 2015 ( tDAR id: 395365)
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