Late Holocene Human Expansion into Near and Remote Oceania: A Bayesian Model-Based Comparison of the Chronologies of the Mariana Islands and Lapita Settlement

Summary

Carson and colleagues have argued that the settlement of the Mariana Islands ~3500 cal BP marks the first major human expansion in the Western Pacific during the late Holocene. If this settlement date is correct, it would be the initial population movement beyond the Near Oceania and Island Southeast Asia region, an area occupied by modern humans for 40,000+ years. The previous consensus gave precedence to the rapid Lapita expansion throughout Near Oceania at generally the same time, followed a few centuries later by an explosive migration into Remote Oceania. However, the order and timing of the Mariana and Near Oceania Lapita migrations remains a hypothesis to be tested. Most previous analyses relied on ad hoc interpretations of a few calibrated radiocarbon dates, often from unidentified charcoal that may contain inbuilt age. Such an approach lends itself to the creation of a subjective, or at least imprecise and potentially inaccurate, chronology. To evaluate the proposed temporal priority of the Mariana Islands in a statistically rigorous manner, we created a Bayesian calibration model based on early settlement data from both regions. The model results are discussed and we suggest ways in which extant data can be improved through future research.

This Resource is Part of the Following Collections

• Society for American Archaeology 81st Annual Meeting, Orlando, FL (2016)   •
• Model Environments: Human Ecodynamics on Islands

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