Bayesian Chronological Modeling Parameters for Establishing Initial East Polynesian Colonization

Summary

This is an abstract from the "Supporting Practical Inquiry: The Past, Present, and Future Contributions of Thomas Dye" session, at the 88th annual meeting of the Society for American Archaeology.

Tom Dye was an early adopter and advocate for the application of Bayesian chronological modeling in Pacific archaeology. Since the 1990s, this chronology-building method has advanced our understanding of key cultural and demographic events through improved and diverse software options, better integration of field data, and more sophisticated modeling structures. Here, we consider the issues of model and data structures to expand on Tom’s pioneering analyses of initial colonization in East Polynesia. Using a series of simulated datasets with “known” colonization dates, we examine the effects of different data choices and OxCal modeling assumptions on the precision and accuracy of colonization estimates. Using these simulation results, we demonstrate the risks of using certain model parameters and suggest best practices for future Bayesian analyses. Our results offer actionable steps to improve estimates of initial island colonization in East Polynesia and beyond, which is important in its own right but is necessary for addressing many archaeological research problems.

This Resource is Part of the Following Collections

• Supporting Practical Inquiry: The Past, Present, and Future Contributions of Thomas Dye   •
• Society for American Archaeology 88th Annual Meeting, Portland, OR (2023)

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Record Identifiers

Abstract Id(s): 36512.0