Prioritizing Site Loss in the Delaware Bay, USA, Using Probabalistic Modeling

Summary

This is an abstract from the "Beyond Triage: Prioritizing Responses to Climate Change Impacts on Archaeological Resources" session, at the 86th annual meeting of the Society for American Archaeology.

The Delaware Bay is the second largest estuary along the US Atlantic coast and is experiencing some of the gravest effects from climate-driven sea level rise along the East Coast. Certain areas along the bay have the lowest mean elevation in the USA and are experiencing both accelerated sea level rise and coastal subsistence. Coastal sites are often at an elevation of 1 m or less and subject to daily tidal action, storm surge, and long-term inundation. The archaeological heritage of the region encompasses diverse occupations by Dutch, Finns, American Indians, and Africans, and is represented by iconic cultural landmarks such as Native American villages, seventeenth-century Dutch settlements, nineteenth-century resort towns, and World War II defensive installations. We propose that the projected impacts to known and potential archaeological resources and should be modeled using probabilistic sea level projections (Kopp et. al 2016) based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 gas emission scenario (IPCC A5) that accounts for atmospheric carbon concentration and incorporates regional processes influencing relative sea level rise. Results can yield localized and even site-specific decadal inundation projections up to 2100 that we demonstrate provide a useful prioritization and planning tool for known and potential archaeological resources.

This Resource is Part of the Following Collections

• Beyond Triage: Prioritizing Responses to Climate Change Impacts on Archaeological Resources   •
• Society for American Archaeology 86th Annual Meeting, Online (2021)

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Record Identifiers

Abstract Id(s): 32779