A Bayesian Approach to the Emergence and Decline of Cahokia

Summary

This is an abstract from the "SAA 2024: Individual Abstracts" session, at the 89th annual meeting of the Society for American Archaeology.

The emergence and decline of Cahokia, the largest Indigenous settlement north of Mexico, have long captivated archaeologists. Population reconstructions are a major line of evidence for unraveling the story of Cahokia. Current models hinge upon reconstructions derived from architectural data which estimate population by tracking the quantity of observed dwellings per phase. It has been proposed that the emergence of Cahokia was rapid and marked by significant population increase, perhaps related to the introduction of maize, and the decline of Cahokia appears to have coincided with hydroclimate variation. Our understanding of Cahokia, however, is hindered by a continued reliance upon culture-historic units of analysis grounded in informally constructed chronologies. The propagation of error from chronology to population must be addressed for the crafting of robust archaeological narratives. I synthesize the available radiocarbon record of the American Bottom and recently collected architectural data from the East St. Louis Precinct as well as legacy data from Cahokia to provide an updated population reconstruction of Greater Cahokia through a combination of Bayesian chronological modeling and Monte Carlo simulation. I then present these estimates in the context of regional demography, maize introduction, and hydroclimate variation to evaluate existing models of Cahokia.

This Resource is Part of the Following Collections

• SAA 2024: Individual Abstracts   •
• Society for American Archaeology 89th Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA (2024)

Keywords

Spatial Coverage

Record Identifiers

Abstract Id(s): 39785.0