Rainfall and conflict among the Lowland Classic Maya

Summary

Determining the causes of conflict in the Maya region during the Classic Period is an important undertaking. Conflict was a prominent feature of relationships among Classic Maya polities and has been implicated in the collapse of Classic Maya society. Recently, Kennett et al. (2012) have argued that reduced rainfall led to increased conflict in the Lowland Maya region between ca. 300 and 900 CE. They arrived at this conclusion after comparing epigraphic records of conflict and variation in δ18O, which they use as a proxy of past rainfall. While Kennett and colleagues’ hypothesis is interesting, their study suffers from several shortcomings. Most importantly, they employed a subjective approach to finding correlations, namely visual comparison of curves. Here we report an attempt to rigorously evaluate Kennett et al.’s hypothesis. We collated epigraphic data on warfare intensity and then compared them to Kennett et al.’s rainfall proxy data with the aid of formal methods for assessing the strength of the association between time series. The results we obtained are not consistent with the predictions of Kennett et al.’s hypothesis. Thus, if rainfall impacted conflict intensity among the Classic Maya, it did not do so in the manner suggested by Kennett and colleagues.

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This Resource is Part of the Following Collections

• Society for American Archaeology 80th Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA (2015)

Keywords

Spatial Coverage