A Probabilistic Approach to Constructing Networks in the Kuril Islands

Summary

One of the persisting challenges in archaeological network analysis is how to incorporate both temporal and spatial information into network models generated from the archaeological record. This paper tackles this issue by introducing a protocol that places probabilistic weights on potential network connections between archaeological sites, combining time-varying probabilities quantifying contemporaneous site occupation and space-dependent probabilities based on geographic distance. The construction of such network models will be illustrated using radiocarbon data from the Kuril Islands of Northeast Asia. Previous work in this region indicates episodic fluctuations in population density over time, with the breakdown of social networks likely playing a pivotal role in adaptive vulnerability and population decline. By creating a multivariate time series comprising thousands of fine-grained probabilistic networks, we examine long-term trends in network structure in the Kuril archipelago and interpret how these changes relate to demographic transitions. Ultimately, we argue that the data-driven, probabilistic approach to network construction we introduce will better prepare archaeologists to interpret network models across broad temporal scales.

This Resource is Part of the Following Collections

• Society for American Archaeology 83rd Annual Meeting, Washington, DC (2018)

Keywords

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Record Identifiers

Abstract Id(s): 21145